Nate Silver worked his magic on the marriage question in Maine. As always, he's got a great analysis examining the factors that impact marriage ballot questions. Nate has already spent considerable time figuring this out. One key factor is "the degree of religiosity in a state." Turns out Maine is the third least religious state in the nation.
The full analysis is worth a read. But, here's Nate's conclusion:
There have also been three polls conducted on the gay marriage ban, although one is somewhat out of date:It probably will be close. And, from what I can tell, there's nothing like complacency in Maine.
On average, the 'No on 1' position -- which would preserve gay marriage -- appears to be about 3 points ahead. It trails slightly, however, in the only poll of likely voters, which is the one from Research 2000 / Daily Kos.
Time to play oddsmaker: I'd lay about 3 to 1 against the marriage ban passing. But it's liable to fairly close -- clearly a winnable campaign for conservatives and a losable one for liberals, especially if the sort of complacency sets in that we saw in California*.
