I'm not even going to pretend that I'm not a Nate Silver junkie. He got me through 2008. And, he's been guiding me through 2009, particularly when it comes to Maine. Last night, he did an analysis of the polls on the marriage question in Maine. It's definitely worth a read (or two). Nate came to this conclusion:
The Odds: A statistical analysis I conducted last month, which was based on the results from previous gay marriage referenda in other states, gave the Yes on 1 side just an 11 percent chance of prevailing, although the fraction rises to 32 percent after an ad-hoc adjustment for the fact that this is an off-year election. In spite of the PPP poll, I'm not especially persuaded to deviate substantially from those numbers: the polling average still favors the 'No' side, albeit narrowly; the 'No' side seems to have run the superior campaign, and the cellphone issue may be worth a point or two. The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I'd still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.I agree with Nate's take. This is not like an average off-year election in Maine. Turnout will be much higher. Older voters always vote in these kinds of elections. Younger people don't. Higher turnout means more young people will be voting. That's good for us.
So, read Nate for the real by-the-numbers analysis. Nate calls them as he's sees them and has the numbers tell the story. But, here's my completely unscientific take: Usually, in any campaign, I am often surprised when I hear that certain people are voting against my side. But, in Maine during this election, I haven't heard one story of someone voting "Yes" who surprised me. Instead, I am constantly amazed by stories I'm hearing about people who are voting "No." It's not just one or two people, there are a lot. And, it's not just in Portland. These are stories, reports and anecdotes from around the state.
So, that's a scientific and non-scientific take. But, the one thing I know to be true is this: It's all about turnout. And, we've got a get-out-the-vote machine.
As John wrote last night, we're making one last pitch for Maine, to insure the campaign has every single ad bought that can be bought. Donate here. Every single vote will matter -- higher turnout is better for us. Thanks for all the help in the campaign. AMERICAblog readers stepped up on this one -- and everyone up here knows it, which is cool.
